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- | ===== The Art Of Futuring ===== | + | ===== The Art of Futuring ===== |
The purpose of futuring is not to predict the future. Instead, futuring is a way to inform your decisions and actions in the present. It allows you to let go of the status-quo and imagine how situations could develop otherwise. Futuring can situate your visions and ideas in the wider contexts in which you operate. Imagining a range of possible futures can help you articulate coherent visions while also developing a capacity to adapt to whatever the future might bring. | The purpose of futuring is not to predict the future. Instead, futuring is a way to inform your decisions and actions in the present. It allows you to let go of the status-quo and imagine how situations could develop otherwise. Futuring can situate your visions and ideas in the wider contexts in which you operate. Imagining a range of possible futures can help you articulate coherent visions while also developing a capacity to adapt to whatever the future might bring. | ||
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===== Futuring Techniques ===== | ===== Futuring Techniques ===== | ||
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The Art of Futuring Workshop offered a hands-on experience of futuring techniques for artists, arts organisations and other members of the cultural proletariat. In addition to mainstream futuring methods like horizon scanning or scenario building, we looked at techniques that are related to (or can be useful for) performing arts. Futuring techniques were introduced through experiential learning. We experimented with techniques for analysing the current situation and emergent signals. We speculated on future scenarios and prototype futures as embodied experiences in the present. We used these experiments to reflect on the futuring methods, on the applicability of futuring in the participants' | The Art of Futuring Workshop offered a hands-on experience of futuring techniques for artists, arts organisations and other members of the cultural proletariat. In addition to mainstream futuring methods like horizon scanning or scenario building, we looked at techniques that are related to (or can be useful for) performing arts. Futuring techniques were introduced through experiential learning. We experimented with techniques for analysing the current situation and emergent signals. We speculated on future scenarios and prototype futures as embodied experiences in the present. We used these experiments to reflect on the futuring methods, on the applicability of futuring in the participants' | ||
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- | === Divination === | + | ==== Divination |
Divination could be considered as the prehistory of futuring, from the mythical past of futures studies. To honor this lineage, we began the workshop by using a contemporary version of Tarot, to add an element of chance and playfulness in the introduction round. The participants were invited to pick one card from [[http:// | Divination could be considered as the prehistory of futuring, from the mythical past of futures studies. To honor this lineage, we began the workshop by using a contemporary version of Tarot, to add an element of chance and playfulness in the introduction round. The participants were invited to pick one card from [[http:// | ||
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- | ---- | + | ==== Card games ==== |
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- | === Card games === | + | |
The first session of the workshop introduced a few futuring concepts in a playful setting. By playing card games the participants learned about constraints, | The first session of the workshop introduced a few futuring concepts in a playful setting. By playing card games the participants learned about constraints, | ||
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- | + | ==== Past and present | |
- | ---- | + | |
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- | === Past and present === | + | |
< | < | ||
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</ | </ | ||
+ | ==== Horizon scanning ==== | ||
- | ---- | + | Horizon scanning is about tracking change in the past and present, to anticipate how this change might evolve in the future. It is about collecting signals of change current developments and collating them into trends and forces/ |
- | === Horizon scanning | + | A few notes on terminology. |
- | Horizon | + | Read more about [[:/ |
- | A few notes on terminology. Horizon scanning investigates different types of change drivers: trends, mega-trends, | + | ==== STEEP analysis |
- | + | ||
- | Read more about horizon scanning [[:/ | + | |
- | An example of a horizon scanning aggregate website: http:// | + | |
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- | == STEEP analysis == | + | |
You can use the STEEP analysis to classify different types of trends and signals in horizon scanning. STEEP stands for ' | You can use the STEEP analysis to classify different types of trends and signals in horizon scanning. STEEP stands for ' | ||
- | Read more about STEEP analysis | + | Read more about [[:/ |
- | //However, as discussed at the workshop, STEEP is just one way to categorise the information gleaned in horizon scanning. Everyone has their own ways of collecting information and translating it into useful knowledge. | + | (However, as discussed at the workshop, STEEP is just one way to categorise the information gleaned in horizon scanning. Everyone has their own ways of collecting information and translating it into useful knowledge.) |
Another futuring technique often used in horizon scanning is [[:/ | Another futuring technique often used in horizon scanning is [[:/ | ||
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- | === Causal Layered Analysis === | + | ==== Causal Layered Analysis |
Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. At the Art of Futuring Workshop we used CLA in the horizon scanning exercise, but we discussed its potential as a scenario building technique as well. | Causal layered analysis is a futures research method focusing on in-depth analysis of current issues and identifying alternative futures. At the Art of Futuring Workshop we used CLA in the horizon scanning exercise, but we discussed its potential as a scenario building technique as well. | ||
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< | < | ||
- | - [[http:// | ||
+ | —[[http:// | ||
</ | </ | ||
< | < | ||
- | + | ==== Scenario building | |
- | + | ||
- | ---- | + | |
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- | === Scenario building === | + | |
There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[: | There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[: | ||
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Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, | ||
- | {{ : | + | {{: |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
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- | === Incasting === | + | ==== Incasting |
Incasting is about delving deeper into scenarios to create more complete worlds and stories filled with rich detail. While it's often fairly easy to agree on the general outline of a scenario, elaborating the specifics and complexities can raise surprising and revealing discussions. By exploring the details of a given scenario, various inconsistencies, | Incasting is about delving deeper into scenarios to create more complete worlds and stories filled with rich detail. While it's often fairly easy to agree on the general outline of a scenario, elaborating the specifics and complexities can raise surprising and revealing discussions. By exploring the details of a given scenario, various inconsistencies, | ||
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At the Art of Futuring workshop we used several approaches to incasting: | At the Art of Futuring workshop we used several approaches to incasting: | ||
- | == Answering the core question == | + | === Answering the core question |
We asked the core question from the vantage points of different scenarios, to uncover four very different answers. | We asked the core question from the vantage points of different scenarios, to uncover four very different answers. | ||
- | == Visualising scenario answers == | + | === Visualising scenario answers |
We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/ | We visualised the answers as posters / moodboards, to get a sense of the divergent look-and-feel of the alternative futures. Read more about creating moodboards [[:/ | ||
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- | == Closed eye visioning / mental time travel == | + | === Closed eye visioning / mental time travel |
Closed eye visioning is a meditative/ | Closed eye visioning is a meditative/ | ||
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Here is a description of a similar closed eye visioning exercise, using four generic futures: https:// | Here is a description of a similar closed eye visioning exercise, using four generic futures: https:// | ||
- | {{> | + | {{> |
- | + | === Personal backstory | |
- | == Personal backstory == | + | |
< | < | ||
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The purpose of writing out a personal backstory is to make the scenario more concrete for the participants' | The purpose of writing out a personal backstory is to make the scenario more concrete for the participants' | ||
- | + | ==== Prototyping | |
- | ---- | + | |
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- | === Prototyping === | + | |
Talking and writing stories about the future can be made more tangible and accessible by using drawings, images and other (audio)visual media, physical objects and artefacts. The creed "//Use a picture. It’s worth a thousand words//" | Talking and writing stories about the future can be made more tangible and accessible by using drawings, images and other (audio)visual media, physical objects and artefacts. The creed "//Use a picture. It’s worth a thousand words//" | ||
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At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the following prototyping techniques: | At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the following prototyping techniques: | ||
- | == Personal profile page == | + | === Personal profile page === |
One of the scenario axes at the Art of Futuring Workshop was looking at (de)centralisation of social media. This exercise was designed to apply an important element of scenario logic (alternative futures of social media) to a phenomenon that is familiar to all participant, | One of the scenario axes at the Art of Futuring Workshop was looking at (de)centralisation of social media. This exercise was designed to apply an important element of scenario logic (alternative futures of social media) to a phenomenon that is familiar to all participant, | ||
- | ==Postcards from the future == | + | ===Postcards from the future |
To embody elements of the scenarios, we created " | To embody elements of the scenarios, we created " | ||
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{{> | {{> | ||
- | + | ===== Preferred futures | |
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- | ==== Preferred futures ==== | + | |
Aside from working with multiple, alternative futures, there are techniques that work with preferred futures, and help us understand their relationship with the past and present. | Aside from working with multiple, alternative futures, there are techniques that work with preferred futures, and help us understand their relationship with the past and present. | ||
- | === Appreciative Inquiry === | + | ==== Appreciative Inquiry |
Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, | Appreciative Inquiry (AI) is a method that focuses on creating preferred futures starting from the strengths, successes and unique attributes of a system or a group in the past and present. AI is grounded in a belief that in any situation there is something that works well. From this position of appreciation, | ||
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At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[: | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we explored the [[: | ||
- | + | ==== Backcasting | |
- | ---- | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | === Backcasting === | + | |
< | < | ||
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https:// | https:// | ||
- | == TOC Outcomes Framework == | + | ==== TOC Outcomes Framework |
At the Art of futuring workshop we used the Theory of Change Outcomes Framework to experiment with backcasting. | At the Art of futuring workshop we used the Theory of Change Outcomes Framework to experiment with backcasting. | ||
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Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https:// | Read more about TOC Outcomes Framework [[https:// | ||
- | + | ==== Prehearsal | |
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- | === Prehearsal === | + | |
A prehearsal is an improvised situation of short duration, a try-out of a scenario focusing on the player’s behaviours and interactions, | A prehearsal is an improvised situation of short duration, a try-out of a scenario focusing on the player’s behaviours and interactions, | ||
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At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a " | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we only had one (optional) session where the participants were invited to design a prehearsal, but we did not get a chance to enact it. The participants developed a more elaborate plan than a simple prehearsal. They designed a " | ||
- | == Pre-enactment == | + | === Pre-enactment |
Pre-enactments are inspired by large-scale larps and re-enactments, | Pre-enactments are inspired by large-scale larps and re-enactments, | ||
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Read more about pre-enactments [[:/ | Read more about pre-enactments [[:/ | ||
- | + | ==== Invocation | |
- | ---- | + | |
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- | === Invocation === | + | |
We started the Art of Futuring Workshop with divination, an ancient technique to probe the unknown futures. We ended it with another one: invocation. | We started the Art of Futuring Workshop with divination, an ancient technique to probe the unknown futures. We ended it with another one: invocation. | ||
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At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to project our intent into the space, hoping to invoke these realities into being... | At the Art of Futuring Workshop we invoked: one thing for yourself, one for the group and one for all beings. We used our voices and bodies to project our intent into the space, hoping to invoke these realities into being... | ||
- | + | ===== Process facilitation | |
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- | ==== Process facilitation ==== | + | |
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- | === Asking questions === | + | ==== Asking questions |
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- | === Dot-voting === | + | ==== Dot-voting |
Dot-voting is a facilitation method used to describe voting with dot stickers or markers. Dot-voting is widely used for making quick collaborative decisions. It is a quick and simple method for prioritize a long list of options. | Dot-voting is a facilitation method used to describe voting with dot stickers or markers. Dot-voting is widely used for making quick collaborative decisions. It is a quick and simple method for prioritize a long list of options. | ||
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Read more about dot-voting here: http:// | Read more about dot-voting here: http:// | ||
- | === Sociometry === | + | ==== Sociometry |
Sociometry is a technique to visualise social relationships. It can show underlying patterns of a group which can be difficult to surface through conversation. A sociometric exercise begins with a question that the group is required to answer by moving in the space and finding appropriate positions for all its members relative to each other. | Sociometry is a technique to visualise social relationships. It can show underlying patterns of a group which can be difficult to surface through conversation. A sociometric exercise begins with a question that the group is required to answer by moving in the space and finding appropriate positions for all its members relative to each other. | ||
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- | === Theory U === | + | ==== Theory U ==== |
The Art of Futuring Workshop was designed with the flow of the Theory-U in mind. we explicitly mentioned the U-Process in relation to our post-lunch silent reflection, meant to allow the participants to return to themselves and integrate the insights and experiences with their inner-life. | The Art of Futuring Workshop was designed with the flow of the Theory-U in mind. we explicitly mentioned the U-Process in relation to our post-lunch silent reflection, meant to allow the participants to return to themselves and integrate the insights and experiences with their inner-life. | ||
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- | + | ==== Open Space ===== | |
- | === Open Space === | + | |
< | < | ||
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- | === Adaptive Action Cycle === | + | ==== Adaptive Action Cycle ==== |
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- | {{> | + | {{> |
- | + | ||
- | ---- | + | |
- | ==== References ==== | + | ===== References |
- | A few formal | + | A few references: |
* [[https:// | * [[https:// |